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March 04, 2014


Ian Cooper

If, as the oil boosters suggest, we are facing the downslope of peak demand, why are oil prices so high?


Well said Tony. This sort of stupid article must be called out as much as possible. Of course we are no match for the slick oil industry PR machine. It is a great pity that more people are not better informed. Governments, including our stupid government here in Australia, should be better informed and providing leadership out of this mess. Instead they show, almost uniformly, that they either haven't a clue, or more likely they are hiding the truth, hoping to hang on somehow until the next election. Then, if they survive, they will repeat the whole sorry charade. Meanwhile the country is making stupid investment decisions and wasting an awful lot of money.


The guy from Saudi Arabia is smoking some good stuff. Conventional oil has peaked around 2005 and we are making up for the depletion rate of 4% of existing well by tight oil, tar sands and natural gas. Actually, every 4-5 years we need to find another Saudi Arabia to replace what we burned. To do that ow we need $100 dollar plus oil. That indicates peak oil.


The governments and oil majors are all using "Demand Constraint" forecasting, that is, they believe that whatever demand their is for oil, is what will be produced. So they could potentially miss Peak Oil, not just before it happens, but even years after it happens. They will attempt to explain any production decline as a decrease in demand, rather than a limit to what can be supplied.

The US and Europe are consuming less because the price went up. The price went up because China (brought into the picture by US and European job export) is now at the table. The world cannot product enough oil for China and the US and Europe to have all the oil they want. So the US and Europe have to cut back - not by choice - but because the price rise of oil forces them to.

The price of oil - even adjusted for inflation - tripled in less than a decade - and then plateaued at that price. The production of oil moved sideways for a while and then has only gone up due to and increase in 3 non-conventional sources of "oil" - tar sands, tight oil trapped in shale that requires fracking, and natural gas liquids (a byproduct of natural gas production). Conventional oil production has peaked. And yet, the powers that be and the elite still claim there is nothing to worry about. Enjoy the sanguinity about oil production while you still can.

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