Politex

Analysis: Texas House a not-so-bright bright spot for Democrats

Governing magazine is out with its latest election forecast for the country's 50 state legislatures. Writer Louis Jacobson concludes that a bad year for Democrats appears to be only getting worse. Of the 28 chambers that could see a shift in the balance of power, 25 are currently controlled by Democrats, according to the magazine.

One piece of mildly good news for Democrats in the article comes from Texas:

In our view, there are 15 chambers which didn't shift enough for us to change the rating quite yet, but which are on the verge of shifting a notch in the GOP's direction in our next installment.

By contrast, we see only one chamber that might shift in the Democratic direction before Election Day -- the Texas House, which could go from likely Republican to lean Republican -- and one that could move in either direction, the New York Senate.

The Texas House is currently divided by 77 Republicans and 73 Democrats.

-Aman Batheja

Boom in political TV ads can be seen in Texas

A new research report shows that political spending on television commercials is up nationwide but campaigns and outside groups are only investing in a handful of Texas races.

The Wesleyan Media Project launched earlier this year to offer real-time tracking and analysis of political television advertising. The Middletown, CT-based group released a report this week which details campaign spending on TV commercials from Jan. 1 to Sept. 15.

Some highlights from the report:

-Almost $350 million has been spent to date on airing commercials for gubernatorial races, with candidates sponsoring roughly 85 percent of total spots. The researchers estimate 725,745 airings this year nationwide.

-The high-profile Texas race for governor comes in third among gubernatorial races, with $38 million spent on airing 56,032 television ads. A good chunk of that likely comes from an especially busy primary for both Republicans and Democrats. The number is likely to grow fast, especially now that the Democratic Governors Association has announced plans to invest as much as $650,000 - $700,000 a week on anti-Perry commercials.

-The researchers estimates that $220 million has been spent on political advertising for races for Congress between Jan. 1 and Sept. 15, compared to roughly $135 million at this point in 2008. The increase is in part due to a spike in ads from interest group fueled by the Supreme Court's Citizens United v. FEC ruling that lifted some spending restrictings, but the share of advertising from third party groups still remains small, according to the group.

-Among House races, the Tennessee race for the open seat to replace retiring Rep. John Tanner saw the most spending on TV. As of Sept. 15, there was more than $3.5 million in TV ad spending.

-The race between Rep. Chet Edwards, D-Waco and Republican Bill Flores is seeing the most spending among congressional races in Texas. The Wesleyan Group estimates $412,000 in spending through Sept. 15, for a total of 1,888 ads aired. That earns the race a rank of #57 in spending in US House races.

-The next Texas race in the rankings is the battle between US Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, D-San Antonio, and Republican Quico Canseco. That race is ranked #113 with $88,206 in TV ad spending.

-The Republican Governors Association gets the top spot among interest group spending. The top group listed as investing in Texas races is the Back to Basics PAC, a Democratic group, which comes in at #18 with $3.5 million in spending. (The Democratic Governors Association ranks #20 but isn't listed as investing in airtime for any Texas races for the period covered in the report.)

-Aman Batheja

Palin endorsement for Tea Party fave Broden becomes official

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has weighed into Texas politics again by backing Republican Stephen Broden against incumbent US Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson in Dallas.

Broden has been a regular speaker at North Texas Tea Party events for over a year, regularly drawing standing ovations for preaching against President Obama's "godless socialism."

Palin posted the endorsement on her Facebook page on Tuesday but the news had already come out over the weekend. On Sunday, Star-Telegram writer Anna Tinsley reported that Broden was introduced at the Wake Up America Tea Party at the Fort Worth Convention Center as the latest politician to get Palin's seal of approval.

Johnson has come under fire in recent weeks for awarding scholarships to relatives and children of one of her aides. Despite the controversy, the seat is still expected to stay Democratic, according to many political analysts. In 2008, both Obama and Johnson garnered 82 percent of the vote in the district.

-Aman Batheja

Candidates won't say?

Only 40 percent of congressional candidates -- the lowest percentage since this survey began in 1992 -- will say where they stand on key issues, according to a new survey by Project Vote Smart.

Project Vote Smart calls it the 2010 Political Courage Test and notes that even if candidates won't say where they stand, they've put together a database at www.voteeasy.org that shows what candidates have said about various issues.

Among the congressional candidates listed as not answering the survey: U.S. Rep. Joe Barton, R-Arlington, and his Democratic challenger David Cozad; U.S. Rep. Kay Granger, R-Fort Worth; U.S. Rep. Kenny Marchant, R-Coppell; U.S. Rep. Michael Burgess, R-Lewisville, his Democratic challenger Neil Durrance, and his Libertarian challenger Mark Boler; and U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards, D-Waco, and his Republican challenger Bill Flores.

Also, 82 percent of legislative candidates in Texas and all gubernatorial candidates did not answer the questions as well.

"VoteEasy is the future -- the cutting edge of technology applied to the people's need to know their candidates," said Richard Kimball, president of Project Vote Smart.

-- Anna M. Tinsley

 

 

Redistricting hearings kick off in Dallas with focus on minorities

Glimmers of the tension that many expect will characterize next year’s redistricting battle in Austin were on display Monday at a hearing in Dallas.

A House and Senate committee are jointly holding three hearings on redistricting in North Texas this week. Monday’s hearing was in downtown Dallas. A hearing on Tuesday will be in Arlington, followed by a Wednesday event in Richardson.

The meeting started at noon with an argument about the location.

Tea Party members pushing Smith to change endorsement policy

Some members of local Tea Party groups rallied against state Rep. Todd Smith in this year's Republican primary. The Euless incumbent beat challenger Jeff Cason and now faces Democrat John Schleeter in November.

Smith felt some of that opposition pop up again last week while at a local Republican group's event when he was asked whether he would support former state Rep. Bill Zedler's bid against state Rep. Chris Turner, D-Burleson. Smith said he wouldn't campaign against any House incumbents, regardless of party.

"Many of our Tea Party members campaigned against him in the primaries, and here's just one reason why," wrote Julie McCarty of the Northeast Tarrant Tea Party in an e-mail to supporters.

Smith said he's keeping the same position he has held for years.

"I strongly and only endorse Republican candidates," Smith said in an e-mail. "I do not get involved in races against sitting legislative colleagues -- period. This policy has served me well in advancing on the House floor the legislative interests of the people of Hurst-Euless-Bedford."

-Aman Batheja

Tea Party turnout

FORT WORTH -- More than 2 1/2 hours in to the Wake Up America Tea Party at the Fort Worth Convention Center, the arena is more than half full.
-- Anna M. Tinsley

Tea Party: Had enough?

FORT WORTH -- Lloyd Marcus, an activist who travels with the Tea Party Express, spoke to thousands gathered in the Fort Worth Convention Center's arena about the need to reclaim the country.

He delivered part of his message by song -- to the tune of the legendary "New York, New York."

He sang of how "this socialist nightmare must come to an end," and of the need to reclaim the House and Senate in 2010.

"If we can stop them there, this agenda doesn't have a prayer," Marcus sang. "But it's up to you and you and you in 2010."

-- Anna M. Tinsley



Tea party message

This vehicle has a few messages.
Anna M. Tinsley

Tea Party music

A little music for today's 912 Fort Worth event at the convention center.
Anna M. Tinsley